FIM District Fenton Event presented by Gene Haas Foundation

Qualification · Qualification 84

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

166.7 – 95.63

71%29%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

117 – 106

Prediction correct · off by 30 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 316.5 ±11.7

5234Marauder Bots

Season APEX 45.5Event APEX 19.39Rank 35Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6067The Underdogs

Season APEX 50.8Event APEX 18.49Rank 37Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9757Mecha Marauders

Season APEX 220.2Event APEX 128.82Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 229.4 ±11.7

862Lightning Robotics

Season APEX 107.9Event APEX 64.58Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8193Steel Stingers

Season APEX 64.8Event APEX 14.26Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9697Bionic Bucs

Season APEX 56.7Event APEX 16.79Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5234, 6067, 9757

/ 100 compat

Projected

166.7 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 5234, 6067, 9757

Auto

21.9 13%

Teleop

94.2 57%

Endgame

50.4 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 862, 8193, 9697

/ 100 compat

Projected

95.6 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 862, 8193, 9697

Auto

23.7 24%

Teleop

46.0 47%

Endgame

27.2 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.93 · Blue 1.12

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score166.7pts

Blue projected score95.6pts

Red win probability71%

Event bonus sample198alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 71.1
Score range: 70–193
Upset likelihood: 29%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 223 vs event baseline 145.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

316.5Season APEX229.4

21.9Auto23.7

94.2Teleop46

50.4Endgame27.2

26Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	20	23
teleop	76	49
endgame	21	34
foul	0	0
total	117	106

Result

Final score

117 – 106

Prediction correct · off by 30 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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