FIM District Fenton Event presented by Gene Haas Foundation

Qualification · Qualification 83

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

121.34 – 139.35

44%56%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

80 – 225

Prediction correct · off by 63.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 260.3 ±12.2

5517The Engineers on Fire

Season APEX 55.5Event APEX -7.66Rank 23Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3568Linden RoboEagles

Season APEX 74.5Event APEX 29.85Rank 22Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5229Heritage Hawkbots

Season APEX 130.3Event APEX 99.15Rank 7Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 291.4 ±12.2

6073Cav-Bots

Season APEX 43Event APEX -19.16Rank 41Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5660Symmetrical Chaos

Season APEX 180.3Event APEX 130.7Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10690ERROR 448

Season APEX 68.1Event APEX 27.81Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5517, 3568, 5229

/ 100 compat

Projected

121.3 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 5517, 3568, 5229

Auto

11.6 10%

Teleop

81.2 67%

Endgame

28.0 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6073, 5660, 10690

/ 100 compat

Projected

139.4 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 6073, 5660, 10690

Auto

33.5 25%

Teleop

65.8 49%

Endgame

35.3 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.44 · Blue 1.63

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score121.3pts

Blue projected score139.4pts

Red win probability44%

Event bonus sample198alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -18
Score range: 95–165
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 305 vs event baseline 145.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

260.3Season APEX291.4

11.6Auto33.5

81.2Teleop65.8

28Endgame35.3

32Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	26	53
teleop	7	110
endgame	47	62
foul	0	0
total	80	225

Result

Final score

80 – 225

Prediction correct · off by 63.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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