FIM District Fenton Event presented by Gene Haas Foundation

Qualification · Qualification 82

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

317.01 – 111

93%7%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

391 – 94

Prediction correct · off by 45.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 536.2 ±9.9

2145HAZMATS

Season APEX 69Event APEX 27.66Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

70More Martians

Season APEX 208.5Event APEX 133.25Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

494Martians

Season APEX 258.7Event APEX 156.1Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 182.6 ±13.3

9759Forge of Falcons

Season APEX 47.4Event APEX 30.44Rank 18Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5641Byron Robotics

Season APEX 62.7Event APEX 44.96Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1322GRAYT Leviathons (Genesee Robotics Area Youth Team)

Season APEX 72.5Event APEX 35.6Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2145, 70, 494

/ 100 compat

Projected

317 pts

~2.6 RP (district)

Teams: 2145, 70, 494

Auto

53.9 17%

Teleop

195.0 62%

Endgame

65.8 21%

Strengths

· 494 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9759, 5641, 1322

/ 100 compat

Projected

111 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 9759, 5641, 1322

Auto

25.5 23%

Teleop

62.2 57%

Endgame

21.8 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.56 · Blue 0.7

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score317pts

Blue projected score111pts

Red win probability93%

Event bonus sample198alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 8%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 206
Score range: 85–343
Upset likelihood: 7%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 485 vs event baseline 144.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

536.2Season APEX182.6

53.9Auto25.5

195Teleop62.2

65.8Endgame21.8

42Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	78	20
teleop	218	39
endgame	90	35
foul	5	0
total	391	94

Result

Final score

391 – 94

Prediction correct · off by 45.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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