FIM District Fenton Event presented by Gene Haas Foundation

Qualification · Qualification 81

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

185.53 – 172.76

54%46%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

283 – 184

Prediction correct · off by 54.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 391 ±11.7

10667Genesee Wolves

Season APEX 83.6Event APEX 32.58Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

68Truck Town Thunder

Season APEX 238.1Event APEX 122.43Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9776Gator Gears

Season APEX 69.3Event APEX 30.52Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 224.1 ±12.2

10978Complete Robotics

Season APEX 83.3Event APEX 57.84Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7202Cyber Orioles

Season APEX 103.7Event APEX 85.75Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5260Owosso Robotics

Season APEX 37.1Event APEX 29.17Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10667, 68, 9776

/ 100 compat

Projected

185.5 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 10667, 68, 9776

Auto

38.8 21%

Teleop

120.1 65%

Endgame

25.8 14%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10978, 7202, 5260

/ 100 compat

Projected

172.8 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 10978, 7202, 5260

Auto

34.1 20%

Teleop

97.8 57%

Endgame

38.3 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.66 · Blue 1.57

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score185.5pts

Blue projected score172.8pts

Red win probability54%

Event bonus sample198alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 61%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 12.8
Score range: 147–212
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 467 vs event baseline 143.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

391Season APEX224.1

38.8Auto34.1

120.1Teleop97.8

25.8Endgame38.3

0Consistency37

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	44	40
teleop	156	76
endgame	83	68
foul	0	0
total	283	184

Result

Final score

283 – 184

Prediction correct · off by 54.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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