FIM District Fenton Event presented by Gene Haas Foundation

Qualification · Qualification 8

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

123.72 – 133.15

47%53%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

88 – 320

Prediction correct · off by 111.3 points

Limited current-season data (7 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 181.8 ±12.1

4130The Blue Devils

Season APEX 56.5Event APEX 17.43Rank 36Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5084Team FridgeBot

Season APEX 50.8Event APEX 23.43Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6538Linc-Bots

Season APEX 74.5Event APEX 82.86Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 539.8 ±10.7

68Truck Town Thunder

Season APEX 238.1Event APEX 32.86Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6073Cav-Bots

Season APEX 43Event APEX 17.43Rank 41Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

494Martians

Season APEX 258.7Event APEX 82.86Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4130, 5084, 6538

/ 100 compat

Projected

123.7 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 4130, 5084, 6538

Auto

25.7 21%

Teleop

69.1 56%

Endgame

28.9 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 68, 6073, 494

/ 100 compat

Projected

133.2 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 68, 6073, 494

Auto

28.9 22%

Teleop

84.3 63%

Endgame

20.0 15%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.47 · Blue 1.61

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score123.7pts

Blue projected score133.2pts

Red win probability47%

Event bonus sample198alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -9.4
Score range: 101–156
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 408 vs event baseline 129.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

181.8Season APEX539.8

25.7Auto28.9

69.1Teleop84.3

28.9Endgame20

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	12	58
teleop	42	204
endgame	34	58
foul	0	0
total	88	320

Result

Final score

88 – 320

Prediction correct · off by 111.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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