FIM District Fenton Event presented by Gene Haas Foundation

Qualification · Qualification 79

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

258.11 – 131.7

83%17%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

207 – 189

Prediction correct · off by 54.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 310.8 ±12.2

8385Metal Madness

Season APEX 54.3Event APEX 26.29Rank 29Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5114Titanium Tigers

Season APEX 200Event APEX 182.72Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4130The Blue Devils

Season APEX 56.5Event APEX 49.1Rank 36Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 259.5 ±12.8

9237The Dragonators

Season APEX 69.2Event APEX 52.22Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4810I AM Robot

Season APEX 119.2Event APEX 59.96Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9455DinoMights

Season APEX 71.1Event APEX 19.52Rank 39Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8385, 5114, 4130

/ 100 compat

Projected

258.1 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 8385, 5114, 4130

Auto

42.1 16%

Teleop

148.7 58%

Endgame

64.8 25%

Strengths

· 5114 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9237, 4810, 9455

/ 100 compat

Projected

131.7 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 9237, 4810, 9455

Auto

30.6 23%

Teleop

74.6 57%

Endgame

26.2 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.24 · Blue 0.88

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score258.1pts

Blue projected score131.7pts

Red win probability83%

Event bonus sample198alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 126.4
Score range: 106–284
Upset likelihood: 17%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 396 vs event baseline 143.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

310.8Season APEX259.5

42.1Auto30.6

148.7Teleop74.6

64.8Endgame26.2

16Consistency19

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	23	40
teleop	87	128
endgame	82	21
foul	15	0
total	207	189

Result

Final score

207 – 189

Prediction correct · off by 54.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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