FIM District Fenton Event presented by Gene Haas Foundation

Qualification · Qualification 77

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

117.38 – 205.77

25%75%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

31 – 113

Prediction correct · off by 89.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 213.6 ±12.4

862Lightning Robotics

Season APEX 107.9Event APEX 72Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6073Cav-Bots

Season APEX 43Event APEX -9.3Rank 41Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5641Byron Robotics

Season APEX 62.7Event APEX 54.68Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 357.5 ±11.1

8193Steel Stingers

Season APEX 64.8Event APEX 24.63Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1322GRAYT Leviathons (Genesee Robotics Area Youth Team)

Season APEX 72.5Event APEX 45.6Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9757Mecha Marauders

Season APEX 220.2Event APEX 135.54Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 862, 6073, 5641

/ 100 compat

Projected

117.4 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 862, 6073, 5641

Auto

23.6 20%

Teleop

55.5 48%

Endgame

37.0 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8193, 1322, 9757

/ 100 compat

Projected

205.8 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 8193, 1322, 9757

Auto

31.6 15%

Teleop

119.9 57%

Endgame

57.5 28%

Strengths

· 9757 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.01 · Blue 2.06

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score117.4pts

Blue projected score205.8pts

Red win probability25%

Event bonus sample198alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 47%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -88.4
Score range: 91–232
Upset likelihood: 25%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 144 vs event baseline 145.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

213.6Season APEX357.5

23.6Auto31.6

55.5Teleop119.9

37Endgame57.5

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	29
teleop	14	60
endgame	0	24
foul	0	0
total	31	113

Result

Final score

31 – 113

Prediction correct · off by 89.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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