FIM District Fenton Event presented by Gene Haas Foundation

Qualification · Qualification 75

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

200.61 – 137.45

69%31%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

121 – 201

Prediction missed · off by 71.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 346.7 ±12.4

10667Genesee Wolves

Season APEX 83.6Event APEX 36.75Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7772The Lucky 7's

Season APEX 54.6Event APEX 20.8Rank 38Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

70More Martians

Season APEX 208.5Event APEX 143.06Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 354.9 ±11.7

5282Railroader Robotics

Season APEX 48.7Event APEX -0.33Rank 33Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10690ERROR 448

Season APEX 68.1Event APEX 23.63Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

68Truck Town Thunder

Season APEX 238.1Event APEX 114.15Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10667, 7772, 70

/ 100 compat

Projected

200.6 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 10667, 7772, 70

Auto

42.6 22%

Teleop

113.9 58%

Endgame

41.0 21%

Strengths

· 70 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5282, 10690, 68

/ 100 compat

Projected

137.5 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 5282, 10690, 68

Auto

37.2 28%

Teleop

83.4 62%

Endgame

14.0 10%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.97 · Blue 1.22

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score200.6pts

Blue projected score137.5pts

Red win probability69%

Event bonus sample198alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 63.2
Score range: 111–227
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 322 vs event baseline 144.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

346.7Season APEX354.9

42.6Auto37.2

113.9Teleop83.4

41Endgame14

21Consistency3

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	34	40
teleop	70	136
endgame	17	25
foul	0	0
total	121	201

Result

Final score

121 – 201

Prediction missed · off by 71.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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