FIM District Fenton Event presented by Gene Haas Foundation

Qualification · Qualification 74

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

209.04 – 185.89

57%43%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

341 – 193

Prediction correct · off by 69.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 301.9 ±12.8

5114Titanium Tigers

Season APEX 200Event APEX 169.72Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9759Forge of Falcons

Season APEX 47.4Event APEX 19.59Rank 18Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3098Waterford Robotics

Season APEX 54.5Event APEX 19.73Rank 34Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 346.3 ±10.5

4130The Blue Devils

Season APEX 56.5Event APEX 45.56Rank 36Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7598SCA Constellations

Season APEX 159.5Event APEX 45.37Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5229Heritage Hawkbots

Season APEX 130.3Event APEX 94.96Rank 7Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5114, 9759, 3098

/ 100 compat

Projected

209 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 5114, 9759, 3098

Auto

38.9 19%

Teleop

117.1 56%

Endgame

51.9 25%

Strengths

· 5114 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4130, 7598, 5229

/ 100 compat

Projected

185.9 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 4130, 7598, 5229

Auto

15.8 9%

Teleop

117.2 63%

Endgame

52.3 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.63 · Blue 1.39

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score209pts

Blue projected score185.9pts

Red win probability57%

Event bonus sample198alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 23.2
Score range: 160–235
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 534 vs event baseline 143.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

301.9Season APEX346.3

38.9Auto15.8

117.1Teleop117.2

51.9Endgame52.3

64Consistency5

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	64	28
teleop	225	105
endgame	52	60
foul	0	0
total	341	193

Result

Final score

341 – 193

Prediction correct · off by 69.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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