FIM District Fenton Event presented by Gene Haas Foundation

Qualification · Qualification 72

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

102.12 – 95.69

52%48%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

199 – 190

Prediction correct · off by 95.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 190.2 ±12.2

6548Perry RAMBOTS

Season APEX 52.6Event APEX 33.92Rank 16Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10978Complete Robotics

Season APEX 83.3Event APEX 51.58Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8385Metal Madness

Season APEX 54.3Event APEX 16.62Rank 29Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 180.8 ±13.3

9237The Dragonators

Season APEX 69.2Event APEX 42.23Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6538Linc-Bots

Season APEX 74.5Event APEX 30.55Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5260Owosso Robotics

Season APEX 37.1Event APEX 22.91Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6548, 10978, 8385

/ 100 compat

Projected

102.1 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 6548, 10978, 8385

Auto

32.5 33%

Teleop

59.1 61%

Endgame

5.6 6%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9237, 6538, 5260

/ 100 compat

Projected

95.7 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 9237, 6538, 5260

Auto

23.1 24%

Teleop

43.1 45%

Endgame

30.5 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.58 · Blue 1.5

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score102.1pts

Blue projected score95.7pts

Red win probability52%

Event bonus sample198alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 6.4
Score range: 70–128
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

High scoring

Combined score 389 vs event baseline 143.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

190.2Season APEX180.8

32.5Auto23.1

59.1Teleop43.1

5.6Endgame30.5

50Consistency43

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	38	16
teleop	120	90
endgame	41	84
foul	0	0
total	199	190

Result

Final score

199 – 190

Prediction correct · off by 95.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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