FIM District Fenton Event presented by Gene Haas Foundation

Qualification · Qualification 70

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

159.58 – 212.15

34%66%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

166 – 195

Prediction correct · off by 11.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 260.3 ±11.7

7202Cyber Orioles

Season APEX 103.7Event APEX 86.03Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

862Lightning Robotics

Season APEX 107.9Event APEX 73.65Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5282Railroader Robotics

Season APEX 48.7Event APEX -0.1Rank 33Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 383.5 ±11.7

494Martians

Season APEX 258.7Event APEX 160.17Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9697Bionic Bucs

Season APEX 56.7Event APEX 23.71Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10690ERROR 448

Season APEX 68.1Event APEX 28.27Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7202, 862, 5282

/ 100 compat

Projected

159.6 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 7202, 862, 5282

Auto

28.6 19%

Teleop

84.7 55%

Endgame

40.7 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 494, 9697, 10690

/ 100 compat

Projected

212.2 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 494, 9697, 10690

Auto

29.1 14%

Teleop

125.7 59%

Endgame

56.6 27%

Strengths

· 494 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.32 · Blue 1.95

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score159.6pts

Blue projected score212.2pts

Red win probability34%

Event bonus sample198alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 58%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -52.6
Score range: 134–238
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 361 vs event baseline 142.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

260.3Season APEX383.5

28.6Auto29.1

84.7Teleop125.7

40.7Endgame56.6

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	49	33
teleop	87	116
endgame	30	46
foul	0	0
total	166	195

Result

Final score

166 – 195

Prediction correct · off by 11.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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