FIM District Fenton Event presented by Gene Haas Foundation

Qualification · Qualification 69

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

224.17 – 201.78

57%43%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

289 – 328

Prediction missed · off by 95.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 339.4 ±11.7

5641Byron Robotics

Season APEX 62.7Event APEX 51.29Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4130The Blue Devils

Season APEX 56.5Event APEX 40.11Rank 36Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9757Mecha Marauders

Season APEX 220.2Event APEX 132.77Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 414.1 ±11.2

7598SCA Constellations

Season APEX 159.5Event APEX 34.26Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5114Titanium Tigers

Season APEX 200Event APEX 155.87Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7772The Lucky 7's

Season APEX 54.6Event APEX 11.65Rank 38Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5641, 4130, 9757

/ 100 compat

Projected

224.2 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 5641, 4130, 9757

Auto

23.5 10%

Teleop

138.6 62%

Endgame

61.8 28%

Strengths

· 9757 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7598, 5114, 7772

/ 100 compat

Projected

201.8 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 7598, 5114, 7772

Auto

36.7 19%

Teleop

121.8 62%

Endgame

38.0 19%

Strengths

· 5114 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.75 · Blue 1.41

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score224.2pts

Blue projected score201.8pts

Red win probability57%

Event bonus sample198alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 22.4
Score range: 177–249
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 617 vs event baseline 140.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

339.4Season APEX414.1

23.5Auto36.7

138.6Teleop121.8

61.8Endgame38

17Consistency17

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	31	55
teleop	127	186
endgame	131	87
foul	0	0
total	289	328

Result

Final score

289 – 328

Prediction missed · off by 95.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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