FIM District Fenton Event presented by Gene Haas Foundation

Qualification · Qualification 67

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

50.22 – 128.71

27%73%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

40 – 106

Prediction correct · off by 16.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 131.7 ±13.3

5532The Panther Bots

Season APEX 35.1Event APEX 11.91Rank 42Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6067The Underdogs

Season APEX 50.8Event APEX 24.44Rank 37Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5603The WarriorBots

Season APEX 45.8Event APEX 13.87Rank 27Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 199.9 ±12.8

10978Complete Robotics

Season APEX 83.3Event APEX 56.89Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9759Forge of Falcons

Season APEX 47.4Event APEX 24.6Rank 18Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9237The Dragonators

Season APEX 69.2Event APEX 47.22Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5532, 6067, 5603

/ 100 compat

Projected

50.2 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 5532, 6067, 5603

Auto

24.5 58%

Teleop

19.8 47%

Endgame

-1.9 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10978, 9759, 9237

/ 100 compat

Projected

128.7 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 10978, 9759, 9237

Auto

33.4 26%

Teleop

68.7 54%

Endgame

26.3 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.94 · Blue 2

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score50.2pts

Blue projected score128.7pts

Red win probability27%

Event bonus sample198alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 36%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -78.5
Score range: 25–154
Upset likelihood: 27%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 146 vs event baseline 139.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

131.7Season APEX199.9

24.5Auto33.4

19.8Teleop68.7

-1.9Endgame26.3

31Consistency24

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	22	41
teleop	10	51
endgame	8	14
foul	0	0
total	40	106

Result

Final score

40 – 106

Prediction correct · off by 16.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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