FIM District Fenton Event presented by Gene Haas Foundation

Qualification · Qualification 66

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

14.01 – 0

55%45%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

63 – 66

Prediction missed · off by 57.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 168.4 ±13.9

6073Cav-Bots

Season APEX 43Event APEX -8.87Rank 41Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8385Metal Madness

Season APEX 54.3Event APEX 12.74Rank 29Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9455DinoMights

Season APEX 71.1Event APEX 10.14Rank 39Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 130.3 ±13.9

6190Cybernetic Crusaders

Season APEX 37.7Event APEX -1.26Rank 24Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5517The Engineers on Fire

Season APEX 55.5Event APEX -19.57Rank 23Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5260Owosso Robotics

Season APEX 37.1Event APEX 18.22Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6073, 8385, 9455

/ 100 compat

Projected

14 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 6073, 8385, 9455

Auto

14.8 90%

Teleop

-2.3 0%

Endgame

4.0 24%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6190, 5517, 5260

/ 100 compat

Projected

-2.6 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 6190, 5517, 5260

Auto

9.7 0%

Teleop

-12.3 100%

Endgame

-1.0 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.57 · Blue 1.4

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score14pts

Blue projected score-2.6pts

Red win probability55%

Event bonus sample198alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 43%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 14
Score range: -25–39
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 129 vs event baseline 141.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

168.4Season APEX130.3

14.8Auto9.7

-2.3Teleop-12.3

4Endgame-1

30Consistency84

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	21	19
teleop	30	27
endgame	12	20
foul	0	0
total	63	66

Result

Final score

63 – 66

Prediction missed · off by 57.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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