FIM District Fenton Event presented by Gene Haas Foundation

Qualification · Qualification 64

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

178.97 – 94.05

74%26%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

265 – 85

Prediction correct · off by 47.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 328.7 ±12.2

8193Steel Stingers

Season APEX 64.8Event APEX 21.47Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5660Symmetrical Chaos

Season APEX 180.3Event APEX 119.42Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10667Genesee Wolves

Season APEX 83.6Event APEX 38.08Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 181.6 ±12.7

3098Waterford Robotics

Season APEX 54.5Event APEX 25.04Rank 34Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6538Linc-Bots

Season APEX 74.5Event APEX 32.15Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6548Perry RAMBOTS

Season APEX 52.6Event APEX 36.86Rank 16Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8193, 5660, 10667

/ 100 compat

Projected

179 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 8193, 5660, 10667

Auto

44.0 25%

Teleop

82.1 47%

Endgame

48.4 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3098, 6538, 6548

/ 100 compat

Projected

94.1 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 3098, 6538, 6548

Auto

22.4 25%

Teleop

48.6 54%

Endgame

19.1 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.01 · Blue 0.96

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score179pts

Blue projected score94.1pts

Red win probability74%

Event bonus sample198alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 40%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 84.9
Score range: 69–204
Upset likelihood: 26%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 350 vs event baseline 139.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

328.7Season APEX181.6

44Auto22.4

82.1Teleop48.6

48.4Endgame19.1

0Consistency52

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	68	24
teleop	136	35
endgame	61	26
foul	0	0
total	265	85

Result

Final score

265 – 85

Prediction correct · off by 47.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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