FIM District Fenton Event presented by Gene Haas Foundation

Qualification · Qualification 63

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

187.08 – 179.04

52%48%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

315 – 275

Prediction correct · off by 111.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 342.6 ±11.6

5114Titanium Tigers

Season APEX 200Event APEX 145.57Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10690ERROR 448

Season APEX 68.1Event APEX 22.34Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3568Linden RoboEagles

Season APEX 74.5Event APEX 19.17Rank 22Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 321.7 ±11.7

70More Martians

Season APEX 208.5Event APEX 129.71Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9697Bionic Bucs

Season APEX 56.7Event APEX 14.25Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4130The Blue Devils

Season APEX 56.5Event APEX 35.08Rank 36Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5114, 10690, 3568

/ 100 compat

Projected

187.1 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 5114, 10690, 3568

Auto

38.8 21%

Teleop

108.9 60%

Endgame

35.2 19%

Strengths

· 5114 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 70, 9697, 4130

/ 100 compat

Projected

179 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 70, 9697, 4130

Auto

32.8 19%

Teleop

94.3 53%

Endgame

49.8 28%

Strengths

· 70 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.65 · Blue 1.58

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score187.1pts

Blue projected score179pts

Red win probability52%

Event bonus sample198alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 8
Score range: 154–212
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 590 vs event baseline 137.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

342.6Season APEX321.7

38.8Auto32.8

108.9Teleop94.3

35.2Endgame49.8

44Consistency49

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	26
teleop	193	180
endgame	105	69
foul	0	0
total	315	275

Result

Final score

315 – 275

Prediction correct · off by 111.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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