FIM District Fenton Event presented by Gene Haas Foundation

Qualification · Qualification 62

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

213.3 – 273.66

32%68%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

179 – 180

Prediction correct · off by 64 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 344 ±12.4

9237The Dragonators

Season APEX 69.2Event APEX 54.55Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9757Mecha Marauders

Season APEX 220.2Event APEX 142.8Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7772The Lucky 7's

Season APEX 54.6Event APEX 15.95Rank 38Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 387.8 ±10.5

5603The WarriorBots

Season APEX 45.8Event APEX 29.37Rank 27Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

494Martians

Season APEX 258.7Event APEX 173.93Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10978Complete Robotics

Season APEX 83.3Event APEX 70.36Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9237, 9757, 7772

/ 100 compat

Projected

213.3 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 9237, 9757, 7772

Auto

25.4 12%

Teleop

132.6 62%

Endgame

55.0 26%

Strengths

· 9757 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5603, 494, 10978

/ 100 compat

Projected

273.7 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 5603, 494, 10978

Auto

53.2 20%

Teleop

181.6 67%

Endgame

35.5 13%

Strengths

· 494 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.23 · Blue 1.91

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score213.3pts

Blue projected score273.7pts

Red win probability32%

Event bonus sample198alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -60.4
Score range: 188–299
Upset likelihood: 32%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

High scoring

Combined score 359 vs event baseline 136.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

344Season APEX387.8

25.4Auto53.2

132.6Teleop181.6

55Endgame35.5

17Consistency10

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	36	54
teleop	93	96
endgame	50	30
foul	0	0
total	179	180

Result

Final score

179 – 180

Prediction correct · off by 64 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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