FIM District Fenton Event presented by Gene Haas Foundation

Qualification · Qualification 61

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

136.91 – 0

85%15%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

183 – 53

Prediction correct · off by 49.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 356.6 ±12.4

9455DinoMights

Season APEX 71.1Event APEX 6.19Rank 39Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9759Forge of Falcons

Season APEX 47.4Event APEX 25.74Rank 18Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

68Truck Town Thunder

Season APEX 238.1Event APEX 104.98Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 122.6 ±13.9

5282Railroader Robotics

Season APEX 48.7Event APEX -1.62Rank 33Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6071The Aluminators

Season APEX 30.9Event APEX 14.46Rank 40Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6073Cav-Bots

Season APEX 43Event APEX -13.65Rank 41Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9455, 9759, 68

/ 100 compat

Projected

136.9 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 9455, 9759, 68

Auto

35.5 26%

Teleop

80.3 58%

Endgame

21.7 16%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5282, 6071, 6073

/ 100 compat

Projected

-0.8 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 5282, 6071, 6073

Auto

16.0 0%

Teleop

-19.2 100%

Endgame

1.0 0%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.25 · Blue 0.74

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score136.9pts

Blue projected score-0.8pts

Red win probability85%

Event bonus sample198alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 39%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 136.9
Score range: -25–162
Upset likelihood: 15%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 236 vs event baseline 136.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

356.6Season APEX122.6

35.5Auto16

80.3Teleop-19.2

21.7Endgame1

43Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	26	22
teleop	130	20
endgame	27	6
foul	0	5
total	183	53

Result

Final score

183 – 53

Prediction correct · off by 49.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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