FIM District Fenton Event presented by Gene Haas Foundation

Qualification · Qualification 6

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

146.45 – 74.64

71%29%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

125 – 90

Prediction correct · off by 18.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 257.1 ±12.2

8385Metal Madness

Season APEX 54.3Event APEX 20.16Rank 29Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1322GRAYT Leviathons (Genesee Robotics Area Youth Team)

Season APEX 72.5Event APEX 33.32Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5229Heritage Hawkbots

Season APEX 130.3Event APEX 92.97Rank 7Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 158 ±13.3

7772The Lucky 7's

Season APEX 54.6Event APEX 20.02Rank 38Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6548Perry RAMBOTS

Season APEX 52.6Event APEX 37.13Rank 16Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6067The Underdogs

Season APEX 50.8Event APEX 17.49Rank 37Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8385, 1322, 5229

/ 100 compat

Projected

146.5 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 8385, 1322, 5229

Auto

21.5 15%

Teleop

92.8 64%

Endgame

30.4 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7772, 6548, 6067

/ 100 compat

Projected

74.6 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 7772, 6548, 6067

Auto

19.5 29%

Teleop

37.7 56%

Endgame

10.1 15%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.01 · Blue 1.05

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score146.5pts

Blue projected score74.6pts

Red win probability71%

Event bonus sample198alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 71.8
Score range: 47–174
Upset likelihood: 29%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 215 vs event baseline 156.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

257.1Season APEX158

21.5Auto19.5

92.8Teleop37.7

30.4Endgame10.1

51Consistency49

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	32	15
teleop	92	48
endgame	1	12
foul	0	15
total	125	90

Result

Final score

125 – 90

Prediction correct · off by 18.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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