FIM District Fenton Event presented by Gene Haas Foundation

Qualification · Qualification 59

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

188.6 – 136.38

66%34%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

107 – 62

Prediction correct · off by 78 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 288.4 ±12.2

5229Heritage Hawkbots

Season APEX 130.3Event APEX 96.36Rank 7Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10667Genesee Wolves

Season APEX 83.6Event APEX 49.39Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6538Linc-Bots

Season APEX 74.5Event APEX 42.85Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 196.8 ±12.7

9776Gator Gears

Season APEX 69.3Event APEX 40.24Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8193Steel Stingers

Season APEX 64.8Event APEX 30.67Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5641Byron Robotics

Season APEX 62.7Event APEX 65.47Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5229, 10667, 6538

/ 100 compat

Projected

188.6 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 5229, 10667, 6538

Auto

26.7 14%

Teleop

119.0 63%

Endgame

44.6 23%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9776, 8193, 5641

/ 100 compat

Projected

136.4 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 9776, 8193, 5641

Auto

27.7 21%

Teleop

69.6 54%

Endgame

32.6 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.88 · Blue 1.22

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score188.6pts

Blue projected score136.4pts

Red win probability66%

Event bonus sample198alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 52.2
Score range: 111–214
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 169 vs event baseline 138.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

288.4Season APEX196.8

26.7Auto27.7

119Teleop69.6

44.6Endgame32.6

0Consistency18

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	11	13
teleop	61	31
endgame	35	18
foul	0	0
total	107	62

Result

Final score

107 – 62

Prediction correct · off by 78 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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