FIM District Fenton Event presented by Gene Haas Foundation

Qualification · Qualification 58

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

140.73 – 121.79

56%44%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

209 – 126

Prediction correct · off by 36.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 289.1 ±12.8

3098Waterford Robotics

Season APEX 54.5Event APEX 19.56Rank 34Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5660Symmetrical Chaos

Season APEX 180.3Event APEX 114.51Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8385Metal Madness

Season APEX 54.3Event APEX 6.66Rank 29Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 238.1 ±11.1

2145HAZMATS

Season APEX 69Event APEX 8.61Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

862Lightning Robotics

Season APEX 107.9Event APEX 76.33Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9207Redneck Robotics

Season APEX 61.2Event APEX 36.85Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3098, 5660, 8385

/ 100 compat

Projected

140.7 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 3098, 5660, 8385

Auto

32.1 24%

Teleop

74.1 54%

Endgame

29.9 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2145, 862, 9207

/ 100 compat

Projected

121.8 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 2145, 862, 9207

Auto

27.2 22%

Teleop

62.1 50%

Endgame

35.0 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.62 · Blue 1.42

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score140.7pts

Blue projected score121.8pts

Red win probability56%

Event bonus sample198alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 18.9
Score range: 97–166
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 335 vs event baseline 137.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

289.1Season APEX238.1

32.1Auto27.2

74.1Teleop62.1

29.9Endgame35

92Consistency56

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	49	25
teleop	97	60
endgame	63	41
foul	0	0
total	209	126

Result

Final score

209 – 126

Prediction correct · off by 36.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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