FIM District Fenton Event presented by Gene Haas Foundation

Qualification · Qualification 57

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

14.34 – 122.62

21%79%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

40 – 100

Prediction correct · off by 24.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 153.6 ±12.7

5517The Engineers on Fire

Season APEX 55.5Event APEX -21.81Rank 23Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6548Perry RAMBOTS

Season APEX 52.6Event APEX 33.22Rank 16Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5234Marauder Bots

Season APEX 45.5Event APEX 2.93Rank 35Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 226.8 ±12.2

5532The Panther Bots

Season APEX 35.1Event APEX 16.71Rank 42Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1322GRAYT Leviathons (Genesee Robotics Area Youth Team)

Season APEX 72.5Event APEX 41.35Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4810I AM Robot

Season APEX 119.2Event APEX 64.56Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5517, 6548, 5234

/ 100 compat

Projected

14.3 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 5517, 6548, 5234

Auto

15.1 100%

Teleop

2.3 25%

Endgame

-8.1 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5532, 1322, 4810

/ 100 compat

Projected

122.6 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 5532, 1322, 4810

Auto

35.6 29%

Teleop

77.3 63%

Endgame

10.2 8%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.89 · Blue 2.1

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score14.3pts

Blue projected score122.6pts

Red win probability21%

Event bonus sample198alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 43%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -108.3
Score range: -11–148
Upset likelihood: 21%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 140 vs event baseline 138.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

153.6Season APEX226.8

15.1Auto35.6

2.3Teleop77.3

-8.1Endgame10.2

87Consistency64

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	19
teleop	8	73
endgame	14	3
foul	0	5
total	40	100

Result

Final score

40 – 100

Prediction correct · off by 24.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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