FIM District Fenton Event presented by Gene Haas Foundation

Qualification · Qualification 56

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

82.29 – 266.63

9%91%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

48 – 252

Prediction correct · off by 24.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 149.9 ±13.3

9697Bionic Bucs

Season APEX 56.7Event APEX 22.41Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5603The WarriorBots

Season APEX 45.8Event APEX 35.14Rank 27Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9759Forge of Falcons

Season APEX 47.4Event APEX 24.74Rank 18Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 451.5 ±11.2

5114Titanium Tigers

Season APEX 200Event APEX 143.65Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6073Cav-Bots

Season APEX 43Event APEX -9.35Rank 41Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

70More Martians

Season APEX 208.5Event APEX 132.33Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9697, 5603, 9759

/ 100 compat

Projected

82.3 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 9697, 5603, 9759

Auto

17.8 21%

Teleop

43.1 52%

Endgame

21.9 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5114, 6073, 70

/ 100 compat

Projected

266.6 pts

~2.4 RP (district)

Teams: 5114, 6073, 70

Auto

66.7 26%

Teleop

158.1 61%

Endgame

34.1 13%

Strengths

· 5114 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.65 · Blue 2.39

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score82.3pts

Blue projected score266.6pts

Red win probability9%

Event bonus sample198alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 43%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -184.3
Score range: 57–292
Upset likelihood: 9%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 300 vs event baseline 138.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

149.9Season APEX451.5

17.8Auto66.7

43.1Teleop158.1

21.9Endgame34.1

42Consistency32

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	26	32
teleop	2	127
endgame	20	93
foul	0	0
total	48	252

Result

Final score

48 – 252

Prediction correct · off by 24.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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