FIM District Fenton Event presented by Gene Haas Foundation

Qualification · Qualification 55

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

234.71 – 118.97

81%19%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

309 – 185

Prediction correct · off by 70.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 487.4 ±10.7

7598SCA Constellations

Season APEX 159.5Event APEX 19.91Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

494Martians

Season APEX 258.7Event APEX 170.63Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9237The Dragonators

Season APEX 69.2Event APEX 44.17Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 306.1 ±12.4

5260Owosso Robotics

Season APEX 37.1Event APEX 11.87Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6071The Aluminators

Season APEX 30.9Event APEX 12.35Rank 40Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

68Truck Town Thunder

Season APEX 238.1Event APEX 94.75Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7598, 494, 9237

/ 100 compat

Projected

234.7 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 7598, 494, 9237

Auto

36.6 16%

Teleop

141.6 60%

Endgame

56.5 24%

Strengths

· 494 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5260, 6071, 68

/ 100 compat

Projected

119 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 5260, 6071, 68

Auto

35.0 31%

Teleop

74.2 65%

Endgame

4.5 4%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.18 · Blue 0.92

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score234.7pts

Blue projected score119pts

Red win probability81%

Event bonus sample198alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 115.7
Score range: 94–260
Upset likelihood: 19%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 494 vs event baseline 136.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

487.4Season APEX306.1

36.6Auto35

141.6Teleop74.2

56.5Endgame4.5

45Consistency49

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	32	28
teleop	190	97
endgame	87	60
foul	0	0
total	309	185

Result

Final score

309 – 185

Prediction correct · off by 70.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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