FIM District Fenton Event presented by Gene Haas Foundation

Qualification · Qualification 54

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

286.2 – 0

97%3%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

271 – 24

Prediction correct · off by 19.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 419.8 ±10.5

9776Gator Gears

Season APEX 69.3Event APEX 47.88Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5229Heritage Hawkbots

Season APEX 130.3Event APEX 96.65Rank 7Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9757Mecha Marauders

Season APEX 220.2Event APEX 141.67Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 157.5 ±13.9

5282Railroader Robotics

Season APEX 48.7Event APEX -9.21Rank 33Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9455DinoMights

Season APEX 71.1Event APEX 3.48Rank 39Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6190Cybernetic Crusaders

Season APEX 37.7Event APEX 0.03Rank 24Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9776, 5229, 9757

/ 100 compat

Projected

286.2 pts

~2.6 RP (district)

Teams: 9776, 5229, 9757

Auto

20.2 7%

Teleop

181.2 63%

Endgame

85.2 30%

Strengths

· 9757 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5282, 9455, 6190

/ 100 compat

Projected

-5.7 pts

~0.6 RP (district)

Teams: 5282, 9455, 6190

Auto

17.3 0%

Teleop

-19.0 100%

Endgame

-9.1 84%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.6 · Blue 0.57

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score286.2pts

Blue projected score-5.7pts

Red win probability97%

Event bonus sample198alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 61%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 286.2
Score range: -25–311
Upset likelihood: 3%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 295 vs event baseline 136.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

419.8Season APEX157.5

20.2Auto17.3

181.2Teleop-19

85.2Endgame-9.1

5Consistency17

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	24	16
teleop	186	5
endgame	61	3
foul	0	0
total	271	24

Result

Final score

271 – 24

Prediction correct · off by 19.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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