FIM District Fenton Event presented by Gene Haas Foundation

Qualification · Qualification 53

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

126.62 – 87.11

62%38%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

148 – 125

Prediction correct · off by 29.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 217.7 ±12.2

10667Genesee Wolves

Season APEX 83.6Event APEX 47.42Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10978Complete Robotics

Season APEX 83.3Event APEX 73.75Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5084Team FridgeBot

Season APEX 50.8Event APEX 5.45Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 236.7 ±11.7

3568Linden RoboEagles

Season APEX 74.5Event APEX 12.86Rank 22Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8385Metal Madness

Season APEX 54.3Event APEX 2.8Rank 29Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

862Lightning Robotics

Season APEX 107.9Event APEX 71.45Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10667, 10978, 5084

/ 100 compat

Projected

126.6 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 10667, 10978, 5084

Auto

29.4 23%

Teleop

68.4 54%

Endgame

28.0 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3568, 8385, 862

/ 100 compat

Projected

87.1 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 3568, 8385, 862

Auto

12.5 14%

Teleop

49.4 55%

Endgame

28.5 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.8 · Blue 1.33

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score126.6pts

Blue projected score87.1pts

Red win probability62%

Event bonus sample198alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 39.5
Score range: 62–152
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 273 vs event baseline 136.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

217.7Season APEX236.7

29.4Auto12.5

68.4Teleop49.4

28Endgame28.5

16Consistency31

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	32	29
teleop	100	71
endgame	16	25
foul	0	0
total	148	125

Result

Final score

148 – 125

Prediction correct · off by 29.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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