FIM District Fenton Event presented by Gene Haas Foundation

Qualification · Qualification 52

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

57.52 – 73.45

45%55%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

104 – 106

Prediction correct · off by 39.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 187.5 ±12.7

7772The Lucky 7's

Season APEX 54.6Event APEX 11.02Rank 38Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10690ERROR 448

Season APEX 68.1Event APEX 19.69Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8193Steel Stingers

Season APEX 64.8Event APEX 26.81Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 235.9 ±12.2

9207Redneck Robotics

Season APEX 61.2Event APEX 36.06Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5517The Engineers on Fire

Season APEX 55.5Event APEX -24.32Rank 23Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4810I AM Robot

Season APEX 119.2Event APEX 61.71Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7772, 10690, 8193

/ 100 compat

Projected

57.5 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 7772, 10690, 8193

Auto

24.9 42%

Teleop

21.5 36%

Endgame

13.4 22%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9207, 5517, 4810

/ 100 compat

Projected

73.5 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 9207, 5517, 4810

Auto

22.2 28%

Teleop

39.7 50%

Endgame

17.7 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.42 · Blue 1.58

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score57.5pts

Blue projected score73.5pts

Red win probability45%

Event bonus sample198alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 47%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -15.9
Score range: 33–98
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 210 vs event baseline 136.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

187.5Season APEX235.9

24.9Auto22.2

21.5Teleop39.7

13.4Endgame17.7

47Consistency30

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	20	25
teleop	44	68
endgame	25	13
foul	15	0
total	104	106

Result

Final score

104 – 106

Prediction correct · off by 39.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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