FIM District Fenton Event presented by Gene Haas Foundation

Qualification · Qualification 51

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

204.7 – 147.85

67%33%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

132 – 240

Prediction missed · off by 82.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 235.4 ±12.7

5641Byron Robotics

Season APEX 62.7Event APEX 84.3Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7202Cyber Orioles

Season APEX 103.7Event APEX 104.15Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2145HAZMATS

Season APEX 69Event APEX 16.25Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 289.4 ±11.6

5660Symmetrical Chaos

Season APEX 180.3Event APEX 98.75Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6548Perry RAMBOTS

Season APEX 52.6Event APEX 20.76Rank 16Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4130The Blue Devils

Season APEX 56.5Event APEX 28.34Rank 36Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5641, 7202, 2145

/ 100 compat

Projected

204.7 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 5641, 7202, 2145

Auto

27.2 14%

Teleop

116.4 59%

Endgame

54.9 28%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5660, 6548, 4130

/ 100 compat

Projected

147.9 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 5660, 6548, 4130

Auto

25.0 18%

Teleop

70.9 51%

Endgame

43.0 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.98 · Blue 1.21

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score204.7pts

Blue projected score147.9pts

Red win probability67%

Event bonus sample198alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 56.9
Score range: 124–229
Upset likelihood: 33%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 372 vs event baseline 135.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

235.4Season APEX289.4

27.2Auto25

116.4Teleop70.9

54.9Endgame43

70Consistency120

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	29	54
teleop	75	132
endgame	28	39
foul	0	15
total	132	240

Result

Final score

132 – 240

Prediction missed · off by 82.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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