FIM District Fenton Event presented by Gene Haas Foundation

Qualification · Qualification 5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

94.12 – 55.07

62%38%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

105 – 53

Prediction correct · off by 6.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 270.9 ±12.4

5282Railroader Robotics

Season APEX 48.7Event APEX 8.71Rank 33Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5641Byron Robotics

Season APEX 62.7Event APEX 46.24Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7598SCA Constellations

Season APEX 159.5Event APEX 39.17Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 165.8 ±12.1

5603The WarriorBots

Season APEX 45.8Event APEX 11.56Rank 27Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3568Linden RoboEagles

Season APEX 74.5Event APEX 25.21Rank 22Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5234Marauder Bots

Season APEX 45.5Event APEX 18.3Rank 35Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5282, 5641, 7598

/ 100 compat

Projected

94.1 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 5282, 5641, 7598

Auto

24.6 27%

Teleop

41.5 46%

Endgame

24.1 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5603, 3568, 5234

/ 100 compat

Projected

55.1 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 5603, 3568, 5234

Auto

18.0 32%

Teleop

27.5 49%

Endgame

10.6 19%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.77 · Blue 1.21

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score94.1pts

Blue projected score55.1pts

Red win probability62%

Event bonus sample198alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 41%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 39.1
Score range: 27–122
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 158 vs event baseline 156.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

270.9Season APEX165.8

24.6Auto18

41.5Teleop27.5

24.1Endgame10.6

16Consistency48

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	32	22
teleop	63	18
endgame	10	13
foul	0	0
total	105	53

Result

Final score

105 – 53

Prediction correct · off by 6.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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