FIM District Fenton Event presented by Gene Haas Foundation

Qualification · Qualification 49

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

141.55 – 181.16

38%62%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

153 – 18

Prediction missed · off by 87.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 213.2 ±12.2

5229Heritage Hawkbots

Season APEX 130.3Event APEX 96.06Rank 7Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5260Owosso Robotics

Season APEX 37.1Event APEX 13.63Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5603The WarriorBots

Season APEX 45.8Event APEX 31.86Rank 27Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 332.5 ±12.4

68Truck Town Thunder

Season APEX 238.1Event APEX 109.33Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9697Bionic Bucs

Season APEX 56.7Event APEX 51.06Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6190Cybernetic Crusaders

Season APEX 37.7Event APEX 20.77Rank 24Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5229, 5260, 5603

/ 100 compat

Projected

141.6 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 5229, 5260, 5603

Auto

24.6 17%

Teleop

85.4 58%

Endgame

36.0 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 68, 9697, 6190

/ 100 compat

Projected

181.2 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 68, 9697, 6190

Auto

35.2 20%

Teleop

120.7 68%

Endgame

21.2 12%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.26 · Blue 1.82

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score141.6pts

Blue projected score181.2pts

Red win probability38%

Event bonus sample198alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -39.6
Score range: 117–206
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 171 vs event baseline 138.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

213.2Season APEX332.5

24.6Auto35.2

85.4Teleop120.7

36Endgame21.2

64Consistency11

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	21	18
teleop	107	0
endgame	10	0
foul	15	0
total	153	18

Result

Final score

153 – 18

Prediction missed · off by 87.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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