FIM District Fenton Event presented by Gene Haas Foundation

Qualification · Qualification 48

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

289.03 – 187.31

78%22%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

392 – 95

Prediction correct · off by 97.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 489.6 ±11.2

494Martians

Season APEX 258.7Event APEX 155.52Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5114Titanium Tigers

Season APEX 200Event APEX 133.23Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6071The Aluminators

Season APEX 30.9Event APEX 0.28Rank 40Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 238.9 ±12.4

9759Forge of Falcons

Season APEX 47.4Event APEX 34.78Rank 18Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10667Genesee Wolves

Season APEX 83.6Event APEX 62.01Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

862Lightning Robotics

Season APEX 107.9Event APEX 90.52Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 494, 5114, 6071

/ 100 compat

Projected

289 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 494, 5114, 6071

Auto

52.6 18%

Teleop

167.6 59%

Endgame

64.2 23%

Strengths

· 494 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9759, 10667, 862

/ 100 compat

Projected

187.3 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 9759, 10667, 862

Auto

25.6 14%

Teleop

110.3 58%

Endgame

53.2 28%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.18 · Blue 0.97

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score289pts

Blue projected score187.3pts

Red win probability78%

Event bonus sample198alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 7%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 101.7
Score range: 162–314
Upset likelihood: 22%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 487 vs event baseline 136.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

489.6Season APEX238.9

52.6Auto25.6

167.6Teleop110.3

64.2Endgame53.2

48Consistency25

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	84	22
teleop	259	28
endgame	34	45
foul	15	0
total	392	95

Result

Final score

392 – 95

Prediction correct · off by 97.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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