FIM District Fenton Event presented by Gene Haas Foundation

Qualification · Qualification 47

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

36.07 – 40.9

48%52%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

59 – 69

Prediction correct · off by 25.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 284.3 ±11.7

5517The Engineers on Fire

Season APEX 55.5Event APEX -34.41Rank 23Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9776Gator Gears

Season APEX 69.3Event APEX 45.34Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7598SCA Constellations

Season APEX 159.5Event APEX 25.14Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 170.1 ±13.3

7772The Lucky 7's

Season APEX 54.6Event APEX 5.25Rank 38Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9207Redneck Robotics

Season APEX 61.2Event APEX 33.08Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8385Metal Madness

Season APEX 54.3Event APEX 2.57Rank 29Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5517, 9776, 7598

/ 100 compat

Projected

36.1 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 5517, 9776, 7598

Auto

9.4 26%

Teleop

22.3 62%

Endgame

4.1 11%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7772, 9207, 8385

/ 100 compat

Projected

40.9 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 7772, 9207, 8385

Auto

14.1 32%

Teleop

20.4 46%

Endgame

9.7 22%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.47 · Blue 1.54

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score36.1pts

Blue projected score40.9pts

Red win probability48%

Event bonus sample198alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -4.8
Score range: 11–66
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 128 vs event baseline 137.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

284.3Season APEX170.1

9.4Auto14.1

22.3Teleop20.4

4.1Endgame9.7

69Consistency35

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	25
teleop	21	28
endgame	21	11
foul	0	5
total	59	69

Result

Final score

59 – 69

Prediction correct · off by 25.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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