FIM District Fenton Event presented by Gene Haas Foundation

Qualification · Qualification 46

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

75.06 – 152.06

28%72%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

80 – 260

Prediction correct · off by 56.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 214.8 ±12.2

4810I AM Robot

Season APEX 119.2Event APEX 59.79Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6548Perry RAMBOTS

Season APEX 52.6Event APEX 26.22Rank 16Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6073Cav-Bots

Season APEX 43Event APEX -10.95Rank 41Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 340.5 ±11.2

10978Complete Robotics

Season APEX 83.3Event APEX 57.56Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

70More Martians

Season APEX 208.5Event APEX 117.94Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5282Railroader Robotics

Season APEX 48.7Event APEX -23.44Rank 33Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4810, 6548, 6073

/ 100 compat

Projected

75.1 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 4810, 6548, 6073

Auto

20.5 29%

Teleop

41.2 58%

Endgame

9.6 13%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10978, 70, 5282

/ 100 compat

Projected

152.1 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 10978, 70, 5282

Auto

42.8 28%

Teleop

90.2 59%

Endgame

20.9 14%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1 · Blue 2.09

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score75.1pts

Blue projected score152.1pts

Red win probability28%

Event bonus sample198alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 40%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -77
Score range: 50–177
Upset likelihood: 28%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 340 vs event baseline 137.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

214.8Season APEX340.5

20.5Auto42.8

41.2Teleop90.2

9.6Endgame20.9

63Consistency65

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	28	72
teleop	52	149
endgame	0	19
foul	0	20
total	80	260

Result

Final score

80 – 260

Prediction correct · off by 56.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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