FIM District Fenton Event presented by Gene Haas Foundation

Qualification · Qualification 44

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

99.89 – 145.47

36%64%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

78 – 154

Prediction correct · off by 15.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 187.2 ±12.7

9237The Dragonators

Season APEX 69.2Event APEX 52.44Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1322GRAYT Leviathons (Genesee Robotics Area Youth Team)

Season APEX 72.5Event APEX 44.97Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5234Marauder Bots

Season APEX 45.5Event APEX 2.48Rank 35Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 249.3 ±12.7

9455DinoMights

Season APEX 71.1Event APEX -1.75Rank 39Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6538Linc-Bots

Season APEX 74.5Event APEX 47.06Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7202Cyber Orioles

Season APEX 103.7Event APEX 100.16Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9237, 1322, 5234

/ 100 compat

Projected

99.9 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 9237, 1322, 5234

Auto

33.3 34%

Teleop

48.0 49%

Endgame

15.9 16%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9455, 6538, 7202

/ 100 compat

Projected

145.5 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 9455, 6538, 7202

Auto

36.8 26%

Teleop

74.1 53%

Endgame

28.8 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.26 · Blue 1.89

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score99.9pts

Blue projected score145.5pts

Red win probability36%

Event bonus sample198alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -45.6
Score range: 76–169
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 232 vs event baseline 135.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

187.2Season APEX249.3

33.3Auto36.8

48Teleop74.1

15.9Endgame28.8

75Consistency14

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	24	11
teleop	46	91
endgame	8	52
foul	0	0
total	78	154

Result

Final score

78 – 154

Prediction correct · off by 15.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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