FIM District Fenton Event presented by Gene Haas Foundation

Qualification · Qualification 42

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

0 – 158

9%91%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

56 – 238

Prediction correct · off by 68 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 133.8 ±13.9

9759Forge of Falcons

Season APEX 47.4Event APEX 30.59Rank 18Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6071The Aluminators

Season APEX 30.9Event APEX -12.22Rank 40Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5517The Engineers on Fire

Season APEX 55.5Event APEX -49.04Rank 23Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 292.8 ±11.2

7772The Lucky 7's

Season APEX 54.6Event APEX -6.43Rank 38Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5229Heritage Hawkbots

Season APEX 130.3Event APEX 83.79Rank 7Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

862Lightning Robotics

Season APEX 107.9Event APEX 80.64Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9759, 6071, 5517

/ 100 compat

Projected

-30.7 pts

~0.6 RP (district)

Teams: 9759, 6071, 5517

Auto

-3.1 10%

Teleop

-23.7 79%

Endgame

-3.2 11%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7772, 5229, 862

/ 100 compat

Projected

158 pts

~2.4 RP (district)

Teams: 7772, 5229, 862

Auto

20.8 13%

Teleop

95.0 59%

Endgame

46.0 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.64 · Blue 2.42

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score-30.7pts

Blue projected score158pts

Red win probability9%

Event bonus sample198alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -158
Score range: -25–183
Upset likelihood: 9%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 294 vs event baseline 137.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

133.8Season APEX292.8

-3.1Auto20.8

-23.7Teleop95

-3.2Endgame46

92Consistency52

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	22	26
teleop	23	167
endgame	11	45
foul	0	0
total	56	238

Result

Final score

56 – 238

Prediction correct · off by 68 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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