FIM District Fenton Event presented by Gene Haas Foundation

Qualification · Qualification 41

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

86.43 – 64.46

57%43%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

108 – 86

Prediction correct · off by 21.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 224.6 ±12.8

9697Bionic Bucs

Season APEX 56.7Event APEX 56.31Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5282Railroader Robotics

Season APEX 48.7Event APEX -27.66Rank 33Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4810I AM Robot

Season APEX 119.2Event APEX 57.78Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 175 ±13.9

5260Owosso Robotics

Season APEX 37.1Event APEX 3.64Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8385Metal Madness

Season APEX 54.3Event APEX 0.06Rank 29Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10667Genesee Wolves

Season APEX 83.6Event APEX 60.76Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9697, 5282, 4810

/ 100 compat

Projected

86.4 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 9697, 5282, 4810

Auto

17.3 19%

Teleop

53.1 59%

Endgame

18.9 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5260, 8385, 10667

/ 100 compat

Projected

64.5 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 5260, 8385, 10667

Auto

30.1 44%

Teleop

30.1 44%

Endgame

8.7 13%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.7 · Blue 1.4

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score86.4pts

Blue projected score64.5pts

Red win probability57%

Event bonus sample198alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 22
Score range: 39–111
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 194 vs event baseline 138.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

224.6Season APEX175

17.3Auto30.1

53.1Teleop30.1

18.9Endgame8.7

30Consistency73

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	33	13
teleop	54	41
endgame	21	32
foul	0	0
total	108	86

Result

Final score

108 – 86

Prediction correct · off by 21.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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