FIM District Fenton Event presented by Gene Haas Foundation

Qualification · Qualification 40

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

115.74 – 306.83

8%92%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

137 – 331

Prediction correct · off by 22.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 150.4 ±13.3

6548Perry RAMBOTS

Season APEX 52.6Event APEX 25.4Rank 16Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5532The Panther Bots

Season APEX 35.1Event APEX 20.1Rank 42Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5641Byron Robotics

Season APEX 62.7Event APEX 70.24Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 521.4 ±9.8

5114Titanium Tigers

Season APEX 200Event APEX 135.76Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

68Truck Town Thunder

Season APEX 238.1Event APEX 113.4Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10978Complete Robotics

Season APEX 83.3Event APEX 57.67Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6548, 5532, 5641

/ 100 compat

Projected

115.7 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 6548, 5532, 5641

Auto

30.1 28%

Teleop

60.7 57%

Endgame

15.7 15%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5114, 68, 10978

/ 100 compat

Projected

306.8 pts

~2.5 RP (district)

Teams: 5114, 68, 10978

Auto

54.2 18%

Teleop

191.9 64%

Endgame

51.5 17%

Strengths

· 5114 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.66 · Blue 2.49

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score115.7pts

Blue projected score306.8pts

Red win probability8%

Event bonus sample198alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 60%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -191.1
Score range: 92–331
Upset likelihood: 8%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 468 vs event baseline 135.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

150.4Season APEX521.4

30.1Auto54.2

60.7Teleop191.9

15.7Endgame51.5

103Consistency14

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	96
teleop	64	228
endgame	40	7
foul	15	0
total	137	331

Result

Final score

137 – 331

Prediction correct · off by 22.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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