FIM District Fenton Event presented by Gene Haas Foundation

Qualification · Qualification 4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

211.6 – 279.27

30%70%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

156 – 352

Prediction correct · off by 64.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 286.7 ±12.2

9776Gator Gears

Season APEX 69.3Event APEX 38.47Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5260Owosso Robotics

Season APEX 37.1Event APEX 31.32Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5660Symmetrical Chaos

Season APEX 180.3Event APEX 141.81Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 402.8 ±11.7

10667Genesee Wolves

Season APEX 83.6Event APEX 36.41Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4810I AM Robot

Season APEX 119.2Event APEX 59.48Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5114Titanium Tigers

Season APEX 200Event APEX 183.38Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9776, 5260, 5660

/ 100 compat

Projected

211.6 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 9776, 5260, 5660

Auto

44.6 22%

Teleop

105.4 51%

Endgame

55.2 27%

Strengths

· 5660 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10667, 4810, 5114

/ 100 compat

Projected

279.3 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 10667, 4810, 5114

Auto

55.0 20%

Teleop

167.5 60%

Endgame

56.0 20%

Strengths

· 5114 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.2 · Blue 1.97

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score211.6pts

Blue projected score279.3pts

Red win probability30%

Event bonus sample198alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -67.7
Score range: 184–307
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 508 vs event baseline 156.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

286.7Season APEX402.8

44.6Auto55

105.4Teleop167.5

55.2Endgame56

39Consistency4

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	29	69
teleop	73	223
endgame	54	60
foul	0	0
total	156	352

Result

Final score

156 – 352

Prediction correct · off by 64.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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