FIM District Fenton Event presented by Gene Haas Foundation

Qualification · Qualification 38

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

188.34 – 95.81

76%24%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

197 – 16

Prediction correct · off by 44.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 404.3 ±11.7

494Martians

Season APEX 258.7Event APEX 158.13Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3568Linden RoboEagles

Season APEX 74.5Event APEX 26.85Rank 22Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9455DinoMights

Season APEX 71.1Event APEX 3.36Rank 39Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 269.8 ±11.1

7598SCA Constellations

Season APEX 159.5Event APEX 46.8Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5234Marauder Bots

Season APEX 45.5Event APEX 16.28Rank 35Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8193Steel Stingers

Season APEX 64.8Event APEX 32.73Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 494, 3568, 9455

/ 100 compat

Projected

188.3 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 494, 3568, 9455

Auto

28.1 15%

Teleop

114.3 62%

Endgame

43.3 23%

Strengths

· 494 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7598, 5234, 8193

/ 100 compat

Projected

95.8 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 7598, 5234, 8193

Auto

29.1 31%

Teleop

36.0 38%

Endgame

29.9 31%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.12 · Blue 0.93

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score188.3pts

Blue projected score95.8pts

Red win probability76%

Event bonus sample198alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 41%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 92.5
Score range: 72–212
Upset likelihood: 24%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 213 vs event baseline 132.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

404.3Season APEX269.8

28.1Auto29.1

114.3Teleop36

43.3Endgame29.9

32Consistency64

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	39	12
teleop	113	4
endgame	45	0
foul	0	0
total	197	16

Result

Final score

197 – 16

Prediction correct · off by 44.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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