FIM District Fenton Event presented by Gene Haas Foundation

Qualification · Qualification 37

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

56.68 – 116.04

32%68%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

35 – 173

Prediction correct · off by 39.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 148.3 ±13.9

6067The Underdogs

Season APEX 50.8Event APEX 41.6Rank 37Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6073Cav-Bots

Season APEX 43Event APEX -6.39Rank 41Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3098Waterford Robotics

Season APEX 54.5Event APEX 21.47Rank 34Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 200.3 ±12.1

5084Team FridgeBot

Season APEX 50.8Event APEX 2.65Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5603The WarriorBots

Season APEX 45.8Event APEX 19.41Rank 27Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7202Cyber Orioles

Season APEX 103.7Event APEX 93.98Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6067, 6073, 3098

/ 100 compat

Projected

56.7 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 6067, 6073, 3098

Auto

18.0 33%

Teleop

23.1 43%

Endgame

12.8 24%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5084, 5603, 7202

/ 100 compat

Projected

116 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 5084, 5603, 7202

Auto

22.5 20%

Teleop

43.7 40%

Endgame

44.3 40%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.02 · Blue 1.87

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score56.7pts

Blue projected score116pts

Red win probability32%

Event bonus sample198alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 33%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -59.4
Score range: 33–140
Upset likelihood: 32%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 208 vs event baseline 133.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

148.3Season APEX200.3

18Auto22.5

23.1Teleop43.7

12.8Endgame44.3

60Consistency71

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	11	20
teleop	13	122
endgame	6	31
foul	5	0
total	35	173

Result

Final score

35 – 173

Prediction correct · off by 39.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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