FIM District Fenton Event presented by Gene Haas Foundation

Qualification · Qualification 36

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

45.03 – 100.88

33%67%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

109 – 130

Prediction correct · off by 46.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 162.3 ±12.7

4130The Blue Devils

Season APEX 56.5Event APEX 21.7Rank 36Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10690ERROR 448

Season APEX 68.1Event APEX 7.73Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6190Cybernetic Crusaders

Season APEX 37.7Event APEX 15.6Rank 24Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 210.8 ±12.1

1322GRAYT Leviathons (Genesee Robotics Area Youth Team)

Season APEX 72.5Event APEX 40.82Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2145HAZMATS

Season APEX 69Event APEX 14.2Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9776Gator Gears

Season APEX 69.3Event APEX 45.86Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4130, 10690, 6190

/ 100 compat

Projected

45 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 4130, 10690, 6190

Auto

12.8 28%

Teleop

22.2 49%

Endgame

10.1 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1322, 2145, 9776

/ 100 compat

Projected

100.9 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 1322, 2145, 9776

Auto

32.3 34%

Teleop

61.8 64%

Endgame

2.1 2%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.2 · Blue 1.92

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score45pts

Blue projected score100.9pts

Red win probability33%

Event bonus sample198alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -55.8
Score range: 21–125
Upset likelihood: 33%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 239 vs event baseline 133.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

162.3Season APEX210.8

12.8Auto32.3

22.2Teleop61.8

10.1Endgame2.1

106Consistency124

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	20
teleop	44	78
endgame	42	32
foul	5	0
total	109	130

Result

Final score

109 – 130

Prediction correct · off by 46.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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