FIM District Fenton Event presented by Gene Haas Foundation

Qualification · Qualification 35

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

111.46 – 55.67

67%33%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

74 – 38

Prediction correct · off by 27.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 146.4 ±13.3

9697Bionic Bucs

Season APEX 56.7Event APEX 64.73Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5260Owosso Robotics

Season APEX 37.1Event APEX 8.64Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6548Perry RAMBOTS

Season APEX 52.6Event APEX 38.09Rank 16Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 137.1 ±13.9

5532The Panther Bots

Season APEX 35.1Event APEX 24.57Rank 42Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7772The Lucky 7's

Season APEX 54.6Event APEX -4.35Rank 38Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9759Forge of Falcons

Season APEX 47.4Event APEX 35.45Rank 18Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9697, 5260, 6548

/ 100 compat

Projected

111.5 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 9697, 5260, 6548

Auto

18.7 18%

Teleop

55.8 54%

Endgame

28.7 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5532, 7772, 9759

/ 100 compat

Projected

55.7 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 5532, 7772, 9759

Auto

19.3 36%

Teleop

12.1 22%

Endgame

22.6 42%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.87 · Blue 1.14

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score111.5pts

Blue projected score55.7pts

Red win probability67%

Event bonus sample198alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 44%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 55.8
Score range: 32–135
Upset likelihood: 33%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 112 vs event baseline 135.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

146.4Season APEX137.1

18.7Auto19.3

55.8Teleop12.1

28.7Endgame22.6

120Consistency119

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	27	20
teleop	34	12
endgame	13	6
foul	0	0
total	74	38

Result

Final score

74 – 38

Prediction correct · off by 27.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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