FIM District Fenton Event presented by Gene Haas Foundation

Qualification · Qualification 34

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

219.87 – 351.67

16%84%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

225 – 356

Prediction correct · off by 4.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 431.8 ±10.5

68Truck Town Thunder

Season APEX 238.1Event APEX 120.94Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4810I AM Robot

Season APEX 119.2Event APEX 56.69Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6538Linc-Bots

Season APEX 74.5Event APEX 42.24Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 528.1 ±9.3

9757Mecha Marauders

Season APEX 220.2Event APEX 125.05Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

862Lightning Robotics

Season APEX 107.9Event APEX 83.66Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5114Titanium Tigers

Season APEX 200Event APEX 142.96Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 68, 4810, 6538

/ 100 compat

Projected

219.9 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 68, 4810, 6538

Auto

49.8 23%

Teleop

155.1 70%

Endgame

15.3 7%

Strengths

· 68 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9757, 862, 5114

/ 100 compat

Projected

351.7 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 9757, 862, 5114

Auto

64.0 18%

Teleop

220.6 64%

Endgame

61.8 18%

Strengths

· 5114 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.9 · Blue 2.34

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score219.9pts

Blue projected score351.7pts

Red win probability16%

Event bonus sample198alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -131.8
Score range: 196–376
Upset likelihood: 16%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 581 vs event baseline 131.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

431.8Season APEX528.1

49.8Auto64

155.1Teleop220.6

15.3Endgame61.8

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	37	19
teleop	149	201
endgame	39	136
foul	0	0
total	225	356

Result

Final score

225 – 356

Prediction correct · off by 4.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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