FIM District Fenton Event presented by Gene Haas Foundation

Qualification · Qualification 33

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

102.06 – 197.65

23%77%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

179 – 259

Prediction correct · off by 69.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 361.7 ±12.4

8385Metal Madness

Season APEX 54.3Event APEX -8.91Rank 29Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

494Martians

Season APEX 258.7Event APEX 147.72Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5282Railroader Robotics

Season APEX 48.7Event APEX -36.75Rank 33Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 463.3 ±10.5

70More Martians

Season APEX 208.5Event APEX 106.12Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5660Symmetrical Chaos

Season APEX 180.3Event APEX 80.82Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3568Linden RoboEagles

Season APEX 74.5Event APEX 10.71Rank 22Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8385, 494, 5282

/ 100 compat

Projected

102.1 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 8385, 494, 5282

Auto

30.9 30%

Teleop

59.7 57%

Endgame

13.3 13%

Strengths

· 494 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 70, 5660, 3568

/ 100 compat

Projected

197.7 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 70, 5660, 3568

Auto

40.1 21%

Teleop

96.2 51%

Endgame

51.0 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.06 · Blue 2.18

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score102.1pts

Blue projected score197.7pts

Red win probability23%

Event bonus sample198alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -95.6
Score range: 79–221
Upset likelihood: 23%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 438 vs event baseline 128.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

361.7Season APEX463.3

30.9Auto40.1

59.7Teleop96.2

13.3Endgame51

110Consistency96

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	31
teleop	108	179
endgame	55	49
foul	0	0
total	179	259

Result

Final score

179 – 259

Prediction correct · off by 69.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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