FIM District Fenton Event presented by Gene Haas Foundation

Qualification · Qualification 32

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

70.09 – 102.37

40%60%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

67 – 74

Prediction correct · off by 15.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 183.1 ±13.3

6067The Underdogs

Season APEX 50.8Event APEX 43.77Rank 37Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9455DinoMights

Season APEX 71.1Event APEX -3.86Rank 39Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9207Redneck Robotics

Season APEX 61.2Event APEX 30.18Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 201.8 ±13.9

5641Byron Robotics

Season APEX 62.7Event APEX 72.11Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5517The Engineers on Fire

Season APEX 55.5Event APEX -34.78Rank 23Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10667Genesee Wolves

Season APEX 83.6Event APEX 65.04Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6067, 9455, 9207

/ 100 compat

Projected

70.1 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 6067, 9455, 9207

Auto

16.8 28%

Teleop

32.6 54%

Endgame

11.5 19%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5641, 5517, 10667

/ 100 compat

Projected

102.4 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 5641, 5517, 10667

Auto

18.3 17%

Teleop

63.6 60%

Endgame

24.8 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.26 · Blue 1.73

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score70.1pts

Blue projected score102.4pts

Red win probability40%

Event bonus sample198alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -32.3
Score range: 47–125
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 141 vs event baseline 130.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

183.1Season APEX201.8

16.8Auto18.3

32.6Teleop63.6

11.5Endgame24.8

24Consistency29

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	20	21
teleop	21	42
endgame	26	11
foul	0	0
total	67	74

Result

Final score

67 – 74

Prediction correct · off by 15.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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