Qualification · Qualification 3
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
197.96 – 151.1
64%36%
Actual result
Winner
Blue alliance
Final score
115 – 120
Prediction missed · off by 57 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 397.3 ±11.7
Season APEX 103.7Event APEX 83.53Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 238.1Event APEX 121.13Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 55.5Event APEX -6.7Rank 23Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 326.9 ±11.7
Season APEX 220.2Event APEX 113.03Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 37.7Event APEX 3.94Rank 24Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 69Event APEX 34.13Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 7202, 68, 5517
72
/ 100 compatProjected
198 pts
~1.9 RP (district)
Teams: 7202, 68, 5517
Auto
36.8 19%
Teleop
118.4 61%
Endgame
39.4 20%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 58%
Supercharged: 3%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 9757, 6190, 2145
59
/ 100 compatProjected
151.1 pts
~1.3 RP (district)
Teams: 9757, 6190, 2145
Auto
21.6 14%
Teleop
86.4 57%
Endgame
43.0 28%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
- · Thin autonomous coverage
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 58%
Supercharged: 3%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.91 · Blue 1.29
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score198pts
Blue projected score151.1pts
Red win probability64%
Event bonus sample198alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 58%, blue 53%
Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 46.9
- Score range
- 123–226
- Upset likelihood
- 36%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-16
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
397.3Season APEX326.9
36.8Auto21.6
118.4Teleop86.4
39.4Endgame43
39Consistency22
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 29 | 16 |
| teleop | 84 | 83 |
| endgame | 2 | 21 |
| foul | 0 | 0 |
| total | 115 | 120 |
Result
Final score
115 – 120
Prediction missed · off by 57 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
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