FIM District Fenton Event presented by Gene Haas Foundation

Qualification · Qualification 28

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

269.56 – 97.89

89%11%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

78 – 84

Prediction missed · off by 102.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 354.1 ±11.7

4810I AM Robot

Season APEX 119.2Event APEX 102.99Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7772The Lucky 7's

Season APEX 54.6Event APEX 36.42Rank 38Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5660Symmetrical Chaos

Season APEX 180.3Event APEX 130.15Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 196.4 ±12.7

3568Linden RoboEagles

Season APEX 74.5Event APEX -1.44Rank 22Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9759Forge of Falcons

Season APEX 47.4Event APEX 51.7Rank 18Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6538Linc-Bots

Season APEX 74.5Event APEX 47.63Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4810, 7772, 5660

/ 100 compat

Projected

269.6 pts

~2.4 RP (district)

Teams: 4810, 7772, 5660

Auto

39.3 14%

Teleop

165.9 61%

Endgame

66.6 25%

Strengths

· 5660 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3568, 9759, 6538

/ 100 compat

Projected

97.9 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 3568, 9759, 6538

Auto

11.3 12%

Teleop

51.0 54%

Endgame

31.6 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.37 · Blue 0.73

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score269.6pts

Blue projected score97.9pts

Red win probability89%

Event bonus sample198alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 171.7
Score range: 74–294
Upset likelihood: 11%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 162 vs event baseline 134.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

354.1Season APEX196.4

39.3Auto11.3

165.9Teleop51

66.6Endgame31.6

65Consistency108

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	30	18
teleop	40	51
endgame	8	15
foul	0	0
total	78	84

Result

Final score

78 – 84

Prediction missed · off by 102.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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