FIM District Fenton Event presented by Gene Haas Foundation

Qualification · Qualification 27

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

206.1 – 188.49

55%45%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

68 – 229

Prediction missed · off by 89.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 309.9 ±12.2

9207Redneck Robotics

Season APEX 61.2Event APEX 54.36Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5282Railroader Robotics

Season APEX 48.7Event APEX -4.44Rank 33Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5114Titanium Tigers

Season APEX 200Event APEX 156.18Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 351.6 ±12.4

6067The Underdogs

Season APEX 50.8Event APEX 20.37Rank 37Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

68Truck Town Thunder

Season APEX 238.1Event APEX 116.85Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5641Byron Robotics

Season APEX 62.7Event APEX 51.27Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9207, 5282, 5114

/ 100 compat

Projected

206.1 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 9207, 5282, 5114

Auto

48.9 25%

Teleop

112.6 58%

Endgame

32.6 17%

Strengths

· 5114 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6067, 68, 5641

/ 100 compat

Projected

188.5 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 6067, 68, 5641

Auto

41.2 22%

Teleop

123.5 65%

Endgame

24.1 13%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.66 · Blue 1.44

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score206.1pts

Blue projected score188.5pts

Red win probability55%

Event bonus sample198alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 17.6
Score range: 164–230
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 297 vs event baseline 134.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

309.9Season APEX351.6

48.9Auto41.2

112.6Teleop123.5

32.6Endgame24.1

62Consistency85

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	34	28
teleop	26	138
endgame	8	48
foul	0	15
total	68	229

Result

Final score

68 – 229

Prediction missed · off by 89.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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