FIM District Fenton Event presented by Gene Haas Foundation

Qualification · Qualification 26

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

75.53 – 127.47

34%66%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

166 – 191

Prediction correct · off by 77 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 314.7 ±12.4

70More Martians

Season APEX 208.5Event APEX 79.22Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5532The Panther Bots

Season APEX 35.1Event APEX 3.78Rank 42Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9455DinoMights

Season APEX 71.1Event APEX -7.47Rank 39Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 259.8 ±12.7

7202Cyber Orioles

Season APEX 103.7Event APEX 52.62Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10667Genesee Wolves

Season APEX 83.6Event APEX 38.09Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1322GRAYT Leviathons (Genesee Robotics Area Youth Team)

Season APEX 72.5Event APEX 36.76Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 70, 5532, 9455

/ 100 compat

Projected

75.5 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 70, 5532, 9455

Auto

26.5 35%

Teleop

35.2 47%

Endgame

13.4 18%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7202, 10667, 1322

/ 100 compat

Projected

127.5 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 7202, 10667, 1322

Auto

32.7 26%

Teleop

70.6 57%

Endgame

20.9 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.24 · Blue 1.93

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score75.5pts

Blue projected score127.5pts

Red win probability34%

Event bonus sample198alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -51.9
Score range: 52–151
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 357 vs event baseline 132.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

314.7Season APEX259.8

26.5Auto32.7

35.2Teleop70.6

13.4Endgame20.9

161Consistency86

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	54	46
teleop	76	107
endgame	21	38
foul	15	0
total	166	191

Result

Final score

166 – 191

Prediction correct · off by 77 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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