FIM District Fenton Event presented by Gene Haas Foundation

Qualification · Qualification 24

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

36.26 – 152.34

19%81%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

66 – 186

Prediction correct · off by 31.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 264.7 ±11.7

5260Owosso Robotics

Season APEX 37.1Event APEX -14.72Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7598SCA Constellations

Season APEX 159.5Event APEX 38.75Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10690ERROR 448

Season APEX 68.1Event APEX 12.23Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 236.7 ±10.5

862Lightning Robotics

Season APEX 107.9Event APEX 100.27Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5234Marauder Bots

Season APEX 45.5Event APEX 20.16Rank 35Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10978Complete Robotics

Season APEX 83.3Event APEX 31.91Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5260, 7598, 10690

/ 100 compat

Projected

36.3 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 5260, 7598, 10690

Auto

15.7 38%

Teleop

15.0 36%

Endgame

10.8 26%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 862, 5234, 10978

/ 100 compat

Projected

152.3 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 862, 5234, 10978

Auto

29.2 19%

Teleop

96.3 62%

Endgame

30.8 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.91 · Blue 2.19

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score36.3pts

Blue projected score152.3pts

Red win probability19%

Event bonus sample198alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -116.1
Score range: 12–176
Upset likelihood: 19%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 252 vs event baseline 133.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

264.7Season APEX236.7

15.7Auto29.2

15Teleop96.3

10.8Endgame30.8

148Consistency39

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	22	48
teleop	13	99
endgame	31	39
foul	0	0
total	66	186

Result

Final score

66 – 186

Prediction correct · off by 31.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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